Solar flares can have much more serious consequences than our technological world has experienced so far.

Because the threat of a CME is very real and can have devastating effects on humanity, I’m going to get a bit geeky here and di deeper into the science of it for you, so you have a better understanding why this occurs and why as Preppers we need to put measures in place to protect our electronic equipment from the effects of a CME.

This video shows the Sept. 10, 2017, X8.2-class solar flare as observed by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory. The video shows a blend of light from the 171- and 304-angstrom wavelengths.

In early September 2017, residents of the Caribbean began to recover from Hurricane Irma. Then there was a serious incident: solar storms triggered radio interference and thus hampered the rescue work. Luckily, the strongest solar particle showers shot past Earth, otherwise it would have otherwise been a much bigger catastrophic damage.

The Caribbean episode is a cautionary tale about an often-underestimated natural hazard – CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) and solar flares. Wherever you look and whatever latest studies you research – our civilization is inadequately prepared for the particularly devastating consequences of solar flares. At least scientists can assess the danger: in recent years they have determined more and more precisely how often solar flares occur and how strong they can be at most.

How do Solar Flares occur?

Outbreaks of the sun occur when the field lines of the solar magnetic field emanating from sunspots suddenly shift. Then the central star throws huge amounts of plasma into space. After such coronal mass ejections, high-energy radiation and particle clouds occasionally reach the earth. They can cause powerful auroras in the ionosphere. After particularly strong outbreaks, the colored glow can be admired not only in high latitudes, but even in the tropics.

Solar Flares Threaten Our Electronics

However, the northern lights are just a harmless side effect. Powerful solar flares can cause enormous damage on and above the earth. The danger comes not only from the high-energy particles, but also from the deformation of the earth’s magnetic field: In extreme cases, solar storms disable our satellites and paralyze electronic communication and navigation systems. In addition, currents induced by the shifting magnetic field can burn out transformers, causing power grids to collapse.

Estimates put the global cost potentially into the trillions of dollars.

In recent decades, solar flares have been tracked with telescopes and sensors on Earth, as well as instruments onboard satellites. In 1956 the most intense solar storm that could be directly observed occurred. The most powerful event in the scientific age is the so-called Carrington Event in 1859, named after the British astronomer Richard Carrington. The induced current was so strong that in some places, telegraphs continued to run without batteries. However, scientists doubt that the maximum possible intensity for solar storms was reached at that time. The strongest storms are yet to come.

The number of solar flares varies with the 11-year sunspot cycle. When the number of sunspots is at its maximum, about 20 times as many eruptions are observed as during a minimum of activity. However, the historical record of fluctuating solar activity does not provide quantifiable information about how powerful past solar flares were.  How can we measure this? Isotope analysis can help.

We find Isotope traces in ice, trees and corals

When the high-energy particles from the sun reach the earth, changes occur in the characteristic isotopes: If scientists later find an increased concentration of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 in ice cores, tree rings and corals, these are indications of former solar flares. Historical reports of low-latitude aurorae, particularly from European and East Asian sources, can be used for confirmation. However, their usefulness is limited. Aurora visibility depends on many factors unrelated to solar activity, such as the weather and regional shifts in the Earth’s magnetic field.

The strongest solar outburst effecting earth happened in 774

The strongest outlier of the characteristic isotopes can be found in the year 774. According to different estimates, this event was 5 to 50 times stronger than the solar storm of 1956. No more violent solar particle showers have been found for the last 11 000 years. Space physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu in Finland considers the event of 774 to be a worst-case scenario in the Holocene and estimates the average return time at 6500 years. However, the uncertainty is great: the actual value is probably between 4,000 and 15,000 years. In order to be able to determine the frequency of the worst case more precisely, it would be good to know other events in the more distant past. However, what is currently missing are high-precision measurements of the isotope carbon-14 in natural archives with annual resolution.

A solar storm as extreme as 774 would not only pose a threat to space travel, power supplies, communications, navigation and traffic. It would also potentially weaken the ozone layer for a year – and thereby change the weather. This was reported by a team led by Usoskin and Timofei Sukhodolov from the Davos Physical Meteorological Observatory. According to this study, that solar storm in January 775 reduced the temperature in Europe by up to three degrees Celsius.

What about recent speculations about «SUPERFLARES»?

In recent years there have been speculations that the sun is capable of even more violent eruptions than 774. The triggers were observations with NASA’s “Kepler” space telescope. Astrophysicists observed so-called superflares in sun-like stars. These flares are several times more powerful than the 774 event. Assuming that the Sun can indeed produce superflares, Harvard University’s Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb recently played through possible consequences . Accordingly, the world economy would then collapse; in extreme cases, the costs of the disaster could exceed global gross domestic product.

The sun’s activity cycle is currently approaching its next minimum. Some researchers speculate that the sunspots could take a longer break. However, it is more likely that solar activity will increase again in a few years – and with it the risk of solar storms.

How Can We Protect Our Vulnerable Civilization?

We are not at the mercy of these dangers from space. Short-term warnings can be issued thanks to space probes near the sun. But that doesn’t save a lot of time. Concrete predictions of how a solar storm will affect the earth can often only be made hours or minutes before it arrives. Part of our vital infrastructure can be switched off in good time. But it is better to make the infrastructure more resistant to solar particle showers. Because unlike in earlier centuries, today’s civilization with its numerous electrical and electronic devices is extremely vulnerable to solar storms.

The “National Space Weather Strategy”  has been researching this for years and is planning measures. Several European countries are also preparing for extreme solar storms. In addition, international cooperation was strengthened. The latest knowledge about the frequency and intensity of solar flares suggests that the time until the next solar maximum should not be wasted. The probability of something like the Carrington event repeating itself in the next ten years is estimated at around ten percent .

Whether the region you currently live in would also be affected depends on the temporal and spatial characteristics of the solar storm.

So now that you know more about how these events occur and how potentially devastating they can be for our electronic infrastructure, let’s look at when we might face such an event next.

You will be shocked to find out there is very little time to prepare! Click below where I investigate:

Could Solar Storms Destroy our Civilization?